Familinomics Index 7/25: Spoofing?

The July data for the 36 foodstuff item Familinomics Grocery Index is in, and I wonder whether or not the results indicate that a single item is spoofing the Index results.

For the record, the July 2025 Index declined yet again to an average cost (five unrelated grocers) of $107.48 and an Index level of 101.37 (January baseline was a level of 100 at a baseline average cost of $106.03). The Index peaked in April at 103.83, and began to drop consistently as the government-brokered import of eggs began to take hold in groceries nationwide. As of July 5, when the data collection was finished, the average cost of a dozen large eggs was 39.9% lower ($3.46) than when the Index began in January 2025 ($4.84).

I began recalculating the results last month sans eggs to ascertain how much that singular foodstuff might mask the results. When the Index was at its April high mark of 103.83, the egg-less Index was a lower 103.48. The resulting months since are shown below:

	4/2025	5/2025	6/2025	7/2025
Full Index	103.83	102.31	101.69	101.37
Index/no eggs	103.48	102.59	102.77	102.80
Difference	.35	(.28)	(1.08)	(1.43)

The Index is being affected by a singular component and that is accelerating as time passes.

So what are the salient points to take from this?

First, that any index is susceptible to being spoofed. Critics of the Dow Jones Average have noted repeatedly that the performance of a few high-flyers has masked underlying weakness amongst the rest of the market.

Second, the value of any Index lies in it's ability to provide coherence to the information held within a vast number of datapoints. That value is predicated however, on the objectivity and apolitical presentation of the data within.

Third, eggs have been a poster-child for food inflation from the outset of the Trump Administration. The Administration responded by brokering an import deal to address. But instead of fostering policies that support the entire structure, it has put its thumb on the scale of one item; this is a micro-example of how selective singular actions can hide reality and promote an alternative (and false) front.

So what are the other observations from the July pricing?

• This was the first time that a large grocer simply didn't have iceberg lettuce on the shelves. It listed the item online and had a locally grown organic brand available, but the usual product from California was simply not there...there wasn't even a label on the shelf.

• A major Orange Juice producer has decreased the size of the standard offering of Not-From-Concentrate product from the standard 52 to 46 ounces. While I do not price this particular item in the Index, I expect that it will filter through to the generic alternatives over the next several months and I will have to account for this shrinkflation (link).

• The local grocer prides itself on service and both my wife and I noted separately that this grocer has begun to shrink the flavors and packaging available for some brands sold by the bean. It has also removed staff from providing service at that section and is now self-serve only for weighing and grinding.