Familinomics Price Index: February 2025

The pricing for the February version of the Familinomics Price Index is complete and to paraphrase the late John Denver's "Saturday Night in Toledo, Ohio", Feb-ru-ary in the Price Index, I spent a year there one month. 

The US Government’s goal for price stability is to maintain price rises at a maximum between 2-3% annually.  The original cost of the 36 item Familinomics market basket in January, 2025 was $106.03; the price of that same basket of identical food items in February was $108.38. This is a nominal increase of $2.35, equivalent to a rise of 2.2%.

So yeah, we blew through what should be a year of price stability in a single month.

The Data and Stats

The results of the February pricing, which occurred at five separate and unrelated grocery stores from February 1 through 5, are in the chart at the end of the article.  During that single month period, fully half of the 36 items underwent a price increase; 11 items had no change in price and seven items had a price decrease.  The median price change for the period was .38% and the range of price changes within the basket was from a price decrease of 7.46% to 21.69%, for a range of 29.15 basis points.

The average price change per category was as follows:

Breads: (.7%)

Cereals: .32%

Dairy: .9%

Grocery/Canned Produce: 2.09%

Meat/Protein: 6.69%

Produce/Fresh: 4.09%

Staples: (.16%)

Comments

It’s obvious that the driver for the dramatic increase in the basket is within the Meat/Protein category, particularly because of the decimation of the national poultry flocks to disease.  The price of a pound of chicken thighs rose over 20% in a month and the cost of eggs exploded by almost 22% in that same period.  As this disease continues to spread, expect the cost of a dozen eggs to rise further, as well further limitations on the amounts that can be purchased by consumers. What is especially interesting is a complaint lodged with the Federal Trade Commission by a farm advocacy group alleging that the egg supply has been manipulated by Cal Maine, a publicly traded supplier. This has apparently been done by the company's refusal to replace or expand their flocks in the face of culling with a veritable explosion in their profit margins.  

Even with the chicken and the egg situation, the cost of a pound of ground beef – sold in value packs equal to or greater than three pounds – rose by 5.33% to $4.94 at 80% fat content.  I will be curious to watch this moving forward to see what impact the immigration/deportation effort has.  Why?  Because in most of the stores, the meat is sold in pill-shaped plastic wrapped packages nicknamed chubs.  Most of these chubs are supplied by a multi-national Brazilian meat-packing corporation that operates not just horizontally across national boundaries, but also vertically up the meat supply chain.  As an industrial packer, the labor force is highly dependent upon immigrant workers and these firms were targeted by ICE on multiple occasions during the first Trump Administration.

Fresh produce rose by 4% during the period.  There’s a seasonal component to fresh produce as it historically rises during the winter months to be followed by a decline in the summer, but I frankly expect no decrease as the seasonal aspect is overtaken by the impact of the deportation plans upon the migrants who comprise a large percentage of the agricultural labor force. Additionally, a large percentage of our fruits and vegetables are imported from Canada and Mexico and the beginning of tariffs will more than offset any seasonal decrease.

The Canned Produce/Grocery category rose 2% during the month and my big question there is the impact of tariffs upon the supply of containers, let alone the food contents packed within.

February 2025 Market Basket, p. 1

February 2025 Market Basket, p. 2