The Familinomics Index - March 2025
- Don Harrold
- Mar 22
- 2 min read
The pricing for the 36 item Familinomics Grocery Index is done and the results calculated. I regret the time taken to get this posted and do not anticipate such delays in the future.
As I write this, the threatened, then rescinded, then modified, then applied tariffs with Mexico and Canada have begun. There is now a 25% tariff on imports from those countries, but the pricing for March was completed by the imposition date so the Index doesn’t reflect any impact.
The Index, which comprises 36 common foodstuff items in seven categories at five unrelated grocery stores, rose again from February’s 102.22 to a reading of 103.36 for the beginning of March. This is from the baseline of 100.00 established in January 2025. Inflationary impact is improving momentarily but future months' results will bear out whether it's an actual trend.
As in any marketbasket, not every item will change in lockstep as multiple factors come into play for pricing. Supply and demand forces, seasonal changes to items (particularly fresh fruits and vegetables), and changes in suppliers can all impact what’s occurring. In February, 18 separate items rose in price while 7 fell. In March, only 14 rose in price while 10 items fell. The number of items with no change in price from the previous month changed minimally at 11 and 12 respectively.
The poster child and driver for the increases in both cases was the price of a dozen large eggs, which increased Month-on-Month by 21.69% in February and 20.88% in March. What was likewise notable about the Meat component of the Index was that 4 of the other 5 meat items actually decreased in price in March; whether this is a one-off monthly aberration or attributable to other factors cannot yet be determined.
The April data collection will show the first impact of the Trump-imposed tariffs, as we see how fresh produce prices change. It’s possible that the initial impact will be minimal but as this continues, the suppliers and grocers will not be able to minimize the damage in pricing. I agree with the linked article in that what will likely be noticeable at first is a smaller supply on the shelves, as suppliers/grocers try to minimize what they have to purchase to avoid needless spoilage. Let’s face it, a can of berries will last far longer than fresh berries. But they can't keep it up forever.
There are two other impacts from tariffs that I am expecting. The immediate one is a rise in the cost of Canola oil, since the crop for that cooking oil is predominantly from Canada. The longer term effect will be due to the higher cost of fertilizer, since about 80% of fertilizer inputs are imported from Canada as well.
If you think that the consumer is being affected, understand that there will be deeper damage to the food supply chain as grocers, wholesalers and farmers are absolutely whip-sawed by the chaos being imposed upon them.
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